Awesome Statistics Album and Music Offers

Economics is not widely considered to be one of the sexier sciences The annual Nobel Prize winner in that field never receives as much publicity as his or her compatriots in peace, literature, or physics But if such slights are based on the notion that economics is dull, or that economists are concerned only with finance itself, Steven D. Levitt will change some minds. In Freakonomics (written with Stephen J. Dubner), Levitt argues that many apparent mysteries of everyday life don't need to be so mysterious: they could be illuminated and made even more fascinating by asking the right questions and drawing connections. For example, Levitt traces the drop in violent crime rates to a drop in violent criminals and, digging further, to the Roe v. Wade decision that preempted the existence of some people who would be born to poverty and hardship. Elsewhere, by analyzing data gathered from inner-city Chicago drug-dealing gangs, Levitt outlines a corporate structure much like McDonald's, where the top bosses make great money while scores of underlings make something below minimum wage. And in a section that may alarm or relieve worried parents, Levitt argues that parenting methods don't really matter much and that a backyard swimming pool is much more dangerous than a gun. These enlightening chapters are separated by effusive passages from Dubner's 2003 profile of Levitt in The New York Times Magazine, which led to the book being written. In a book filled with bold logic, such back-patting veers Freakonomics, however briefly, away from what Levitt actually has to say. Although maybe there's a good economic reason for that too, and we're just not getting it yet. --John Moe.
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Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

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Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

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Amazon Guest Review: Stephen Hawking
Published in 1988, Stephen Hawking's A Brief History of Time became perhaps one of the unlikeliest bestsellers in history: a not-so-dumbed-down exploration of physics and the universe that occupied the London Sunday Times bestseller list for 237 weeks. Later successes include 1995's A Briefer History of Time, The Universe in a Nutshell, and God Created the Integers: The Mathematical Breakthroughs that Changed History. Stephen Hawking is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

In The Drunkard's Walk Leonard Mlodinow provides readers with a wonderfully readable guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives. With insight he shows how the hallmarks of chance are apparent in the course of events all around us. The understanding of randomness has brought about profound changes in the way we view our surroundings, and our universe. I am pleased that Leonard has skillfully explained this important branch of mathematics. --Stephen Hawking

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Addison-Wesley is proud to celebrate the Tenth Edition of Elementary Statistics. This text is highly regarded because of its engaging and understandable introduction to statistics The author's commitment to providing student-friendly guidance through the material and giving students opportunities to apply their newly learned skills in a real-world context has made Elementary Statistics the #1 best-seller in the market.

Students learning from Elementary Statistics should have completed an elementary algebra course. Although formulas and formal procedures can be found throughout the text, the emphasis is on development of statistical literacy and critical thinking.

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The Bestselling Text is Completely Updated and Better than Ever!

The Third Edition of the bestselling text Research Design by John W. Creswell enables readers to compare three approaches to research—qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods—in a single research methods text. The book presents these three approaches side by side within the context of the process of research from the beginning steps of philosophical assumptions to the writing and presenting of research. Written in a user-friendly manner, Creswell's text does not rely on technical jargon. He cuts to the core of what a reader needs to know to read and design research in part by showcasing ideas in a scaffold approach so that the reader understands ideas from the simple to the complex.

Key updates to the Third Edition:

• Presents the preliminary steps of using philosophical assumptions in the beginning of the book
• Provides an expanded discussion on ethical issues
• Emphasizes new Web-based technologies for literature searches
• Offers updated information about mixed methods research procedures
• Contains a glossary of terms
• Highlights “research tips” throughout the chapters incorporating the author’s experiences over the last 35 years
• Accompanied by an Instructor’s Resource CD ROM (ISBN:978-1-4129-6672-6) with a complete PowerPoint slide presentation ready-to-use in the classroom, as well as sample activities and discussion questions.  Qualified adopters of this text can request the Instructor's Resource CD through Customer Care at 1.800.818.7243.

Research Design, Third Edition appeals to students taking research design and research methods classes throughout the social and behavioral sciences—from undergraduates to the most advanced doctoral programs.

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Master statistics with STATISTICS FOR THE BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES! With straightforward instruction, built-in learning aids, and real world examples, this psychology text provides you with the tools you need to succeed. You will have numerous opportunities to practice statistical techniques through learning checks, examples, demonstrations, and problems. Exam preparation is made easy with a student companion website that provides tutorials, crossword puzzles, flashcards, learning objectives, and more!.
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The most authoritative and innovative guide to professional football is back for an all-new season with more cutting-edge statistical analysis, obsessive film study, and trademark humor.

Building on a winning record of accurate predictions, the 2008 annual includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of off -season personnel changes, and exclusive forecasts for where each team will finish the 2008 season. With statistics for more than 500 skill players along with commentary and KUBIAK projections forecasting their 2008 fantasy football numbers, Pro Football Prospectus is an outstanding and reliable resource for fantasy players, Monday-morning quarterbacks, and die-hard fans everywhere..
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What works in education? How do we know? How can teachers find out? How can educational research find its way into the classroom? How can we apply it to help our individual students? Questions like these arise in most schools, and busy educators often don't have time to find the answers. Robert J. Marzano, Debra J. Pickering, and Jane E. Pollock have examined decades of research findings to distill the results into nine broad teaching strategies that have positive effects on student learning:

* Identifying similarities and differences.
* Summarizing and note taking.
* Reinforcing effort and providing recognition.
* Homework and practice.
* Nonlinguistic representations.
* Cooperative learning.
* Setting objectives and providing feedback.
* Generating and testing hypotheses.
* Questions, cues, and advance organizers.

This list is not new. But what is surprising is finding out what a big difference it makes, for example, when students learn how to take good notes, work in groups, and use graphic organizers. The authors provide statistical effect sizes and show how these translate into percentile gains for students, for each strategy. And each chapter presents extended classroom examples of teachers and students in action; models of successful instruction; and many "frames," rubrics, organizers, and charts to help teachers plan and implement the strategies..
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