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A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan..
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“Zakaria . . . may have more intellectual range and insights than any other public thinker in the West.” —Boston Sunday Globe “This is not a book about the decline of America, but rather about the rise of everyone else.” So begins Fareed Zakaria’s blockbusting bestseller on the United States in the twenty-first century. How can Americans understand this rapidly changing international climate, and how might the nation continue to thrive in a truly global era? Zakaria answers these questions with his customary lucidity, insight, and imagination.

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Price: $14.76 [Notify me when price goes down.]

The economic tipping point for the United States is no longer theoretical It is a reality today. The country has gone from the world's largest creditor to its greatest debtor; the value of the dollar is sinking; domestic manufacturing is winding down - and these trends don't seem to be slowing. Peter Schiff casts a sharp, clear-sighted eye on these factors and explains what the possible effects may be and how investors can protect themselves. For more than a decade, Schiff has not only observed the U.S. economy, but also helped his clients reposition their portfolios to reflect his outlook. What he sees is a nation facing an economic storm brought on by growing federal, personal, and corporate debt, too-little savings, a declining dollar, and lack of domestic manufacturing.
Crash-Proof is an informed and informative warning of a looming period marked by sizeable tax hikes, loss of retirement benefits, double digit inflation, even - as happened recently in Argentina - the possible collapse of the middle class. However, Schiff does have a survival plan that can provide the protection that readers will need in the coming years..
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Is the current economic and political crisis actually prophesied in the Bible?   If so, what are we to do about it?  It is hard to piece together all this information in a way that gives a comprehensive picture of what the end times will look like. That's why so many theories abound. And that's why Dr. David Jeremiah has written What In the World Is Going On?, a unique book that cuts through the hundreds of books and numerous theories to identify the essential 10 most important bible prophecies. There is no other book like this.  You'll find it the ultimate study tool for understanding the future. You'll have a greater sense of comfort that, even in these crazy times,  God is indeed in control. If bible prophecy as always been a mystery to you, Dr. Jeremiah's book will help you solve the mystery.  At last, bible prophecy can make sense, and make a difference.  It's never been more important.   What In the World Is Going On? is shocking and eye-opening but essential reading in these turbulent days.

Brings bible prophecy to light on:

- The oil crisis
- The resurgence of Russia
- The new axis of evil
- The importance of Israel
- The new powers of the European Union
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First came the postwar High, then the Awakening of the '60s and '70s, and now the Unraveling This audacious and provocative book tells us what to expect just beyond the start of the next century Are you ready for the Fourth Turning?

Strauss and Howe will change the way you see the world--and your place in it. In The Fourth Turning, they apply their generational theories to the cycles of history and locate America in the middle of an unraveling period, on the brink of a crisis. How you prepare for this crisis--the Fourth Turning--is intimately connected to the mood and attitude of your particular generation. Are you one of the can-do "GI generation," who triumphed in the last crisis? Do you belong to the mediating "Silent Majority," who enjoyed the 1950s High? Do you fall into the "awakened" Boomer category of the 1970s and 1980s, or are you a Gen-Xer struggling to adapt to our splintering world? Whatever your stage of life, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for America's next rendezvous with destiny..
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The Pacific Northwest experiences the most varied and fascinating weather in the United States, including world-record winter snows, the strongest non-tropical storms in the nation, and shifts from desert to rain forest in a matter of miles. Local weather features dominate the meteorological landscape, from the Puget Sound convergence zone and wind surges along the Washington Coast, to gap winds through the Columbia Gorge and the "Banana Belt" of southern Oregon. This book is the first comprehensive and authoritative guide to Northwest weather that is directed to the general reader; helpful to boaters, hikers, and skiers; and valuable to an expert meteorologist.

In The Weather of the Pacific Northwest, University of Washington atmospheric scientist and popular radio commentator Cliff Mass unravels the intricacies of Northwest weather, from the mundane to the mystifying. By examining our legendary floods, snowstorms, and windstorms, and a wide variety of local weather features, Mass answers such interesting questions as:

Why does the Northwest have localized rain shadows?

What is the origin of the hurricane force winds that often buffet the region?

Why does the Northwest have so few thunderstorms?

What is the origin of the Pineapple Express?

Why do ferryboats sometimes seem to float above the water's surface?

Why is it so hard to predict Northwest weather?

Mass brings together eyewitness accounts, historical records, and meteorological science to explain Pacific Northwest weather. He also considers possible local effects due to global warming. The final chapters guide readers in interpreting the Northwest sky and in securing weather information on their own..
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The United States has been spending its way deeper and deeper into the red, and saddling future generations with the mess—but who's paying attention?
To answer that question, the companion book to the critically acclaimed documentary I.O.U.S.A. talks with some of the most revered voices in the nation, including Warren Buffett; former Treasury Secretaries Paul O’Neill and Robert Rubin; Pete Peterson, CEO of The Blackstone Group; Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas); and bestselling Empire of Debt author Bill Bonner.
Armed with these interviews, historical references, and damning statistics, the book takes a lively and entertaining romp through the four deficits the nation faces: the budget deficit, the personal savings deficit, the trade deficit—and what former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, who resigned abruptly in 2008 over Congress’s lack of action, calls the “leadership deficit” in Washington.
Defiantly non-partisan, the empowering solutions outlined in these pages are a must-read for any American who wants to help change “business-as-usual” in Washington as a new administration heads towards the Oval Office. “We the People” can get our politicians to stop spending, promote responsible economic programs, and hand our children and grandchildren the secure future they deserve.
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Price: $8.85 [Notify me when price goes down.]

“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman

In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:

• The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
• China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
• A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
• Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
• The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.

Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com

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"This is the real deal. Baumohl miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics " --The Wall Street Journal "This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. The coverage of less-reported indicators, especially those from nongovernment sources, is hard to find elsewhere. The inclusion of the actual published tables helps the newer student of the markets find the data in the public release. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet." --David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor's "I find Baumohl's writing fascinating. In addition to the famous indicators, he includes many that I hadn't heard of. I really appreciate that he tells you exactly where to find each indicator on the Web. Just about anyone who's serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic." --Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter "Bernie Baumohl has accomplished something of real value in The Secrets of Economic Indicators. He has successfully demystified the world of financial and economic news that bombards us in our daily lives. Both professional investors and casual observers of the world of finance and economics will be grateful for what he has done. The constant stream of heretofore bewildering news from the world of business and finance can now be easily understood. Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl's book close at hand as he or she catches up on the business, stock market, and economic events of the day. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity." --Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Johnson Illington Advisors "Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets. The daily flow of high frequency economic indicators is the stuff that makes financial markets move and that can signal the big trends that make or break investor portfolios.Most important, Bernie's long experience in reporting economics for Time Magazine helps make the 'dismal science' lively and interesting. " --Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc. "Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. My confidence in reading and understanding economic indicators as portrayed in this book made me realize the possibilities this information holds for improving my personal net worth as well as navigating my business toward higher profits. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances." --Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.; Manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference "I think this is an excellent book. It's well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use." --D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead, Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School "Economic statistics, employment data, Federal Reserve surveys.Think they are boring? Think again! They can drive markets into a frenzy, causing billions of dollars to be made or lost in an instant. Bernie Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and, yes, entertainingly describes what every investor and business manager should know about economic indicators: which ones move markets, how to interpret them, and how to use them to spot and capitalize on future economic trends. The Secrets of Economic Indicators is an extraordinary and insightful work--an enormously important contribution to the body of financial literature. Read it and then keep it on your desk. Consult it the next time you are deluged with a flurry of economic statistics. Your understanding certainly will be enhanced, and your portfolio will likely be as well." --Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International) "If you want to make money investing, this is an essential trend-tracking tool that will help get you to the bank. This book is the real deal. Bernard Baumohl miraculously breathes life into deadly economic indicators and boring statistics ...he knows what he's talking about, and his expertise proves it."--Gerald Celente, Director, The Trends Research Institute COMPLETELY UPDATED! THE PLAIN-ENGLISH, UP-TO-THE-MINUTE GUIDE TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WHAT THEY MEAN, AND HOW TO USE THEM! Every day, investments bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators: statistics that provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the markets. Now, you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals. You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA--just The Secrets of Economic Indicators, Second Edition! Using up-to-the-minute examples and real-world stories, former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters right now. You'll learn where to find them, what their track records are, how to interpret them, and how to use that information to make better decisions. Baumohl has thoroughly updated this best-seller with new data, new examples, new indicators, and revised analyses--including a new assessment of the value of yield curves in predicting business cycles. Thousands of investors and business planners swore by the First Edition: these updates make it even more valuable./ New! Today's 10 most crucial leading indicators Better ways to predict economic turning points in time to profit / Get ahead of the curve with the latest U.S. indicators New insights into U.S. employment, monetary policy, inflation, capital flows, and more / Emerging foreign indicators you need to track From China to India, Europe to Brazil...and beyond / Making sense of indicators in conflict What to do when the numbers disagree / Finding the data Free Web resources for the latest economic data / Which economic indicators really matter right now? / What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies...your portfolio? / How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions? / Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, usable...the only book of its kind! / By Bernard Baumohl, renowned economic analyst and former award-winning TIME Magazine financial journalist New edition, with extensive new coverage: / Many new U.S. and global indicators, from new employment reports to box office receipts / New examples and up-to-the-minute data / Updated analyses of yield curves and other key metrics / More international coverage / New rankings of leading economic indicators, and much more About the Author xiii What's New in the Second Edition? xv Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxiii Chapter 1 The Lock-Up 1 Chapter 2 A Beginner's Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17 Chapter 3 The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25 Chapter 4 International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 325 Chapter 5 Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 373 Chapter 6 Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators 381 Index 387.
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